Vladimir Putin has endorsed Dmitry Medvedev, as his successor providing opposition candidates little chance for success in Russia's upcoming Presidential election.

The Russian Federation has scheduled its next Presidential election for March 2, 2008. Current President Vladimir Putin is forbidden by the country’s Constitution from seeking a third consecutive term in office. Putin’s late December endorsement of a successor makes the results of the Presidential race as much a foregone conclusion as United Russia’s sweeping victory in the December 2007 State Duma election.

Election Preparations

Russia’s Central Election Commission has set a deadline of January 27, 2008 for the official registration of all candidates. Independent candidates were required to submit their documents to the commission prior to December 18, and political parties needed to obtain permission to nominate their candidates by December 23.

Following the registration process, pre-election campaigns and television debates will begin on February 2. Candidates refusing to participate in televised debates will not be provided with compensatory air time.

Putin’s Handpicked Successor

For several years, experts have expected Putin to select First Deputy Prime Minister and long-time confidant Dmitry Medvedev as his chosen successor. However, several personnel appointments by Putin in 2007 muddied the waters. Putin first named former Defense Minister Sergei Ivanov as a second First Deputy Prime Minister, and in September, appointed elder statesman Viktor Zubkov as the country’s new Prime Minister.

Experts questioned whether Putin would support the 42-year old Medvedev, who currently maintains his position as Chairman of Russian gas giant Gazprom. All doubts were laid to rest when, on December 10, 2007, Putin formally announced his support of Medvedev, a fellow member of the United Russia Party.

Riding the coattails of Putin’s popularity, Medvedev’s support has soared in recent weeks. In a poll conducted between December 21 and 25, 79% of respondents said they planned to vote for Medvedev, over double the 35% that favored his candidacy prior to Putin’s announcement.

Opposition Candidates

The following are the opposition candidates currently registered for the 2008 Presidential election (with party affiliation):

• Gennady Zyuganov - Communist Party of the Russian Federation
• Vladimir Zherinovsky - Liberal Democratic Party of Russia
• Mikhail Kasyanov - Self-Nominee, representing the People's Democratic Union
• Andrey Bogdanov - Self-Nominee, representing the Democratic Party of Russia

Several candidates have already withdrawn from the race:

• Garry Kasparov - The Other Russia
• Boris Nemtsov - Union of Right Forces

Situational Analysis

Vladimir Putin has become so popular in Russia that anyone he supports for President is virtually certain to win the election. As Putin’s endorsee, Medvedev is now in the proverbial driver’s seat. It is hard to imagine Medvedev doing anything that would lose the election.

The opposition candidates however, now face a severe uphill climb to merely make a respectable showing in the election. With several candidates having already withdrawn, Medvedev appears to face fewer challenges every day.

Boris Nemtsov claims to have withdrawn to prevent a split democratic vote between himself and Mikhail Kasyanov. Former World Chess Champion Garry Kasparov withdrew after his political movement was unable to rent a hall in Moscow for a required nominating convention. This is only one example of accusations leveled against the Kremlin for obstructing attempts of opposition parties to meet and prepare for the election.

Shortly after gaining Putin’s support, Medvedev asked the current President to be his Prime Minister. Putin has not accepted, but is expected to take the position. Putin will probably still control much of what

happens in the country, and bide his time until he can legally run for another presidential term in 2012.

2008 Russian Presidential Election Results

References

“Kasparov Joins Russian Presidential Race.” The Associated Press. September 30, 2007.

“Medvedev, Dmitry Analtolyevich.” RussiaProfile.org. 2007.

“Medvedev Outpaced Putin in Presidential Rating.” Kommersant. December 27, 2007.

“Russian presidentital candidates to be registered by Jan. 27.” RIA Novosti. December 6, 2007.

“Six candidates registered to run for Russia’s presidency.” Russia Today. December 23, 2007.