To really understand the war in South Ossetia and to put the conflict into context, it is primordial to go beyond finger pointing and propaganda stemming from both sides. So lets put the actual conflict beside and observe the contextual elements that can explain how tensions between Russia and NATO could become so profound.
There are four main contextual elements to take into account:
- The enlargement of NATO towards the former Soviet sphere of influence;
- Energy geopolitics in the Caspian Sea region and Central Asia;
- Washington's contradictory policies towards stability in the Caucasus;
- And the independence of Kosovo.
The second element to consider is energy geopolitics in the Caspian Sea region and Central Asia and the intense rivalry between Russia and the United States for access to and control of oil and natural gas. At this game – some would say a new "Great Game" – Moscow has recently taken the advantage on its rival by consolidating Russia's grip on Central Asian oil and gas and reinforcing its role as Europe's number one supplier.
Russia Taking the Lead in Central Asia
Moscow, through state-owned Gazprom, largely controls Turkmenistan's natural gas supplying to the West. Also, Kazakhstan has refused to cede to Western pressure and cut its close ties to Russia. Astana even fully sided with Moscow on the recent South Ossetia conflict on supported its position, contradicting claims that Russia's intervention in Georgia would make other former Soviet states wary of a similar fate and thus turn to the West for support.
Western oil majors desperately need Kazakh oil to fill the famous BTC (Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan) pipeline, which connects the Caspian Sea to the Mediterranean through the Caucasus, while bypassing both Russia and Iran. BTC starts in Azerbaijan, crosses Georgia and ends in Turkey. Therefore, Tbilisi's support and alignment with the United States and Europe is primordial to attain the objective of reducing Europe's dependence on Russian oil and gas and Moscow's energetic bargaining power. Thus, the strategic importance of Georgia's integration into NATO.
BTC Pipeline in Trouble
However, the most expensive pipeline in History and the most glaring symbol of 21st century energy geopolitics, BTC may never fulfil its grand mission for lack of supply – Azeri oil is not enough – and persistent instability in the Caucasus. Due to the conflict in Georgia, BTC was forced to end its flow of oil and Baku – in spite of its pro-West leaning – reacted by diverting its export of oil to an old Soviet-era pipeline passing through Russia. American Vice-President Dick Cheney, in visit in Baku, clearly understood the message and refused to assist the banquet held in his honor.
But these events lead on to the next contextual element: stability in the Caucasus and Washington's role toward the region.
